Coulomb Stress Analysis And Monte Carlo Simulation In Predicting Sinabung Pyroclastic Flow

Sinabung is a small stratovolcano located in northern Sumatra about 50 km northwest of the Toba caldera. On August 27, 2010, it was confirmed that experienced phreatic eruption for first time history. Initially formed lava dome fell out on January 10, 2014 forming pyroclastic density currents. An increase pore fluid pressure crust supports Coulomb Failure Friction. Positive coulomb stress values ??are thought to trigger activity. The research uses combination Monte Carlo simulation predict next earthquake parameters and analysis determine direction value . produces parameter prediction, longitude 98o latitude 3.175o depth 104.5 meters, Mw 6.0, strike 28.125 o, slip 42o, dip 44.17o. Stress combined 2001-2021 data an average 0.24 bar, 0.14 bar shear, 0.25 normal vector southwest Mount Sinabung. results flows northeast, east, southeast Sinabung, accordance with inversely proportional positive so area needs receive early warning volcanic natural disasters 2022.